AI Hype vs. AI Reality: Inside the Battle That’s Shaping Our Future
Adobe Firefly: Curt Doty
AI is stuck in a shouting match between two tribes.
On one side, the hype squad. They’re convinced we’re a single algorithm away from a world-shaking transformation. They pound the table, prophesying an incoming tidal wave that will wash away industries, careers, and maybe entire ways of living. Adapt or die, they shout.
On the other side, the skeptics. They roll their eyes, insisting AI is all smoke and mirrors. Overblown. Flaky. A Silicon Valley parlor trick destined for the same dustbin as VR.
And here’s the thing: both sides are partly right. And they feed off each other like two drunks leaning against a bar.
The hype inflates expectations beyond what the tech can deliver right now, so people try AI tools and bounce off the rough edges - the hallucinations, the errors, the sometimes frustrating user experiences. They come away thinking: “This is it? This is the revolution?”
Then the skeptics seize on these failures as proof that AI is fundamentally hollow. That it’s all vaporware. A passing fad. And the hype crowd yells louder, sure that people just don’t get it, that they’re being willfully ignorant of how powerful these models truly are under the hood.
It’s a feedback loop. And it’s counterproductive.
The Real Bottleneck Isn’t the Tech - It’s Us
Here’s what both sides miss: even spectacular leaps in AI capabilities don’t instantly translate into economic transformation. Not without a long, messy bridge-building process.
Turning AI capability into economic impact requires:
· Bridging the capability-reliability gap. LLMs are powerful but flaky. A product that depends on them can’t just showcase flashy demos - it has to be robust, predictable, and usable in real-world workflows.
· User learning curves. People need time to wrap their heads around how to integrate new tools into how they work and live. Remember when the first iPhone dropped? People didn’t just “get it” overnight. The App Store didn’t even exist yet. Adoption takes time.
· Shifts in organizational structure and business models. New tech often demands new incentives, new roles, and new ways of measuring success. This is hard work that has to happen inside companies and institutions, not just inside GPU clusters.
And all of this unfolds at the speed of social change - not technological change.
That’s been the drumbeat in my own writing (and the work of Sayash Kapoor and others). Tech bros often underestimate this. They see the economy humming along as usual and assume people must be ignorant of AI’s mind-blowing potential - or actively resisting change out of fear.
So they yell louder, convinced that warning society of imminent transformation will “wake people up.”
But Panic Isn’t a Strategy
The problem with that “adapt or die” narrative is that it’s actively counterproductive. When I started RealmIQ, my AI consultancy, my tagline was “Adopt or Perish,” often referencing dinosaurs. This did not resonate.
People hear the hype about an incoming tsunami, try to use AI to solve a real problem, run into barriers…and give up.
It’s like buying a sports car because you saw it crush the Nürburgring lap record, then realizing it’s stuck in traffic with the rest of us.
Framing AI as all-powerful actually inhibits the mindset we need for adoption. The better mental model is that AI is a normal technology - powerful, sure, but requiring enormous downstream effort to be useful.
It’s not magic. It’s plumbing.
Meanwhile, there’s a very real human side to all this. A lot of people are still reeling from seeing their creative work scraped and reused for AI training without consent. And then being told they need to “get on board or get left behind.”
That’s salt in the wound. It’s no wonder people flock to a counter-narrative that reassures them AI is overrated and destined to fade away.
Why the Skeptics Aren’t Entirely Wrong
I have plenty of sympathy for those gravitating toward the skeptical camp.
First, because the “adapt or die” framing is insulting. It assumes people are clueless and need to be browbeaten into change. That’s not how adoption works. You don’t convert people by calling them Luddites.
Second, because everyone is an expert in their own domain. A film editor, an architect, a music producer - they all have deeper insights into their craft’s nuances than any technologist does. Technologists should listen more instead of assuming that AGI will fix everything.
Some of the strongest critiques of AI come from people confronting its limitations firsthand in specific domains. And those critiques often hold water.
Why the Hype Isn’t Entirely Wrong, Either
But let’s also acknowledge that there’s a reason the hype exists.
There’s a massive inertia problem. Even if you remove AI from the conversation, most of us probably spend only about 1% of our time on genuine upskilling, when arguably it should be closer to 10%.
And yes, while research into LLMs’ internals - like whether they’re truly “reasoning” - is fascinating, it doesn’t negate the economic impacts that even imperfect models are going to unleash.
Even if AGI is a mirage, today’s AI capabilities alone are enough to fundamentally reshape entire industries.
Hollywood, for instance, is already deep into integrating AI in pre-production, VFX, localization, and more. The creative class, which initially feared AI would erase artistry, is increasingly exploring how AI can amplify their vision rather than replace it. But as I’ve written before, the hype must be tempered by real talk about workflow integration, policy, and taste - the last human moat that machines can’t cross.
Taste Still Matters
That’s a drum I keep pounding. AI can generate an ocean of content, but taste - that uniquely human, irrational sense of quality - is what determines what cuts through.
As I’ve said in other contexts, taste is not downloadable. It’s not a feature. It’s earned through lived experience and creative struggle. It’s the only thing that will remain scarce as AI floods the zone with “good enough.”
So, here’s where I land:
· AI is not an unstoppable tidal wave flattening everything in its path tomorrow.
· Nor is it a worthless sideshow destined to fizzle out.
· It’s a powerful tool. But getting from capability to real economic and societal change takes time, human effort, and trust-building.
· Hype needs to chill out. Skepticism needs to stay informed. And everyone needs to get practical.
Because AI is neither salvation nor apocalypse. It’s plumbing that still needs finishing work.
And if we do the work, it might just help us build something remarkable. My new tagline is “Adopt and Thrive,” and it is working.
If you want to change your mindset on AI, book a call with me.
About the Author
Curt Doty, founder of CurtDoty.co, is an award winning creative director whose legacy lies in branding, product development, social strategy, integrated marketing, and User Experience Design. His work of entertainment branding includes Electronic Arts, EA Sports, ProSieben, SAT.1, WBTV Latin America, Discovery Health, ABC, CBS, A&E, StarTV, Fox, Kabel 1, and TV Guide Channel.
He has extensive experience on AI-driven platforms MidJourney, Adobe Firefly, ChatGPT, Perplexity, HeyGen, Descript and OpusClips. He also runs his AI consultancy RealmIQ and companion podcast RealmIQ: Sessions on YouTube and Spotify.
As a new writer, he released his first novella Griffin and the Dark Secret on Amazon under his imprint MediaSlam Press and is working on the second installment Griffin: Future Past.
He is a sought after public speaker having been featured at Streaming Media NYC, Digital Hollywood, Mobile Growth Association, Mobile Congress, App Growth Summit, Promax, CES, CTIA, NAB, NATPE, MMA Global, New Mexico Angels, Santa Fe Business Incubator, EntrepeneursRx, Davos Worldwide, PRSANM, Robert Half, and AI Impact. He has lectured at universities including Full Sail, SCAD, Art Center College of Design, CSUN and Chapman University.
He currently serves on the board of the Godfrey Reggio Foundation and is the AI Writer for Parlay Me.
